The Death of the United Kingdom

The UK was killed not by the IndyRef, it was instead killed by David Cameron, and that is oddly the thing that makes me really conflicted. I can't even get the satisfaction of him resiging, because it means that my view point lost, and he has condemned us all. Cameron announced the Euro Referendum as a way to placate a back bench rise of MPs, to try and calm the storm of UKIP and prevent the defection of the people in his party that he didn't agree with. He probably didn't expect to get the majority last year, never mind actually having to posit the referendum. 

There is a certain type of person who calls a referendum and then doesn't appear to actually understand that the side he doesn't support might win. This is the second time in two years he has done so; and both times he's really struggled to grasp the control of the narrative back. Cameron is that kind of person.

The UK was killed by simple party-politics.

I used that emotive language because the United part of the UK is probably not accurate anymore. 

Scotland voted in 2014 to remain in the UK, but a major part of the agreement was that the UK would stay as part of the EU. In fact, that is proved by the pro-Union side saying that the only way of being in the EU was to vote No back in 2014, and saying that if we voted Yes we'd have to apply for membership, lose the pound, join the Euro, and the rest of the issue with the EU membership. I have friends who campaigned on that basis. Today, now, they face the prospect of being taken out of the EU because another nation voted for it. That is simply not on.

The idea that people who were staunch No voters changing sides has happened since the day after the IndyRef, the moment that the UK Government decided that the best way to deal with the Scots was to enact better provisions for the English. That caused the SNP Surge in membership, and returned 56 SNP MPs to Westminster in 2015. Now, in 2016, another shift has happened - Scotland didn't waver on the vote. 100% of the country voted to Remain an EU nation, and that makes leaving pretty undemocratic.

There are arguments that we made this decision as part of the UK, because we in 2014 chose to remain in the UK then, but the terms of that were under the agreement that we would 100% be part of the EU. Now we are not, and that's enough to make almost all of my No voting friends seriously consider their position now that that is the reality of the situation. 

Northern Ireland is even more complicated, because it would become a border with the EU no matter what happens. There was so much talk of the border between England and Scotland being closed if Yes won out in 2014, with scoffs at the idea of the border being enforced, but now we have the reality of the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland probably having to be a policed border because Ireland, as part of the EU, have to prevent people entering it. There is a realisation that people in the UK might want to hop over the border in the other direction and the EU and Ireland have to have a border there. It's part of the EU rules. So now we have an actual land border that is almost required. The idea that the UK would get to decide if there would be a border is ridiculous. Sure, we could say "No border!" and the EU say "Well, we want a border" and that would be that. The current land borders with the EU are policed, and it would take some negotiation to stop that from happening.

Or you could say that the free movement of people is still going to exist - "so then what was the point in the referendum?" some will ask, because there is a large proportion of the populace that will have voted to "Take Back Control" of their borders.

England and Wales have decided to leave. Scotland and Northern Ireland have decided to remain. For all the talk Cameron did during the IndyRef of maintaining the Union he has managed in one quick move to undercut that entire process, and in turn Un-unify the UK. The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland is no longer united. Maybe, for a long time, it hasn't been. Now we formally know.

Either Scotland stays a member of the EU inside the UK somehow (maybe in a Denmark-Greenland style agreement) or it goes it alone outside of the UK but inside the EU, either applying for a new membership, getting some dispensation for already being a member, or just maintaining the UK membership but with changes to the treaties. Northern Ireland might just join Ireland again, to stay in. Or maybe it'll want to join the new United Kingdom of the Northern British Isles with Scotland, and join the EU. 

There is another option, rightly put forward by the Economist - maybe Wales and England vote for Independence from the UK, leaving the EU, and leaving behind Scotland and Northern Ireland. Personally, I thought that would happen prior to the vote when I was sure Wales wouldn't vote to leave. That isn't what happened, but the reality is interesting.

Or maybe this was all just an ideological coup by the Leavers who have no intention of following through on their promises. I know what that feels like.