I've written a lot recently about Scottish Independence. I've also written quite a lot about the future of politics in the United Kingdom, and how the recent Brexit votes and other things have changed the way the UK can be seen, mostly that it's not United anymore.
If anything has happened in the last few months since my last posts about it, the divisions have got worse. The UK government is steaming ahead with a total Brexit, leaving everything about the EU behind. With it, the intention at the moment is to also pull Scotland with it, despite the simpel fact that Scotland didn't vote for it not stopping them. Even the Scottish Government have voted a few times against it. The only person in the Scottish MP cross party cohort that voted for the Article 50 Bill was the only Tory MP, and one who said just last week that to call an IndyRef2 would put "Scots against Scots", a blantently stupid phrase that pushes tribalism into a simple fact; politics is about people versus people, and denying that there is a difference of views is quite simply madness.
Over the past few weeks I've came to a simple conclusion - one that shouldn't be a surprise to anyone who is paying attention.
Scotland is going to be independent.
After the IndyRef in 2014 I wasn't sure how long it would take. I wasn't officially sure that it was going to happen. But now, following a few massive factors, it is plainly obviosu that is has to be the only way forward for a progressive Scotland, for the following reasons.
Scotland is European
This is something that I have only recently started to believe fullly, but it's something that should be said - England has been for hundreds of years it's own thing. It's had power as part of the English Kingdom, later the Union, and then the Empire. It's had power, and power that it has had has been used to make sure it retains it's power. Scotland has benefited from this - there is no denying it. One thing that Scotland had before the Union was a catalogue of affilations and rulers from Europe, mainly France, and the overall feeling in Scotland is one of European symptahy, when friends and family visit there, work there, and we see the work done for Scottish roads and farmers and fishermen. The difference in the culture is something it is hard to understate, but also hard to quantify.
Scotland is Global
The largest export Scotland makes is Whisky, and it's synonymous with the word across the world. Exporting that to the world is part and parcel of the 21st Century Scotland. That too is part of the inventions and technology that originates from Scotland - not the mythical telephone, television and steam engine, but the minds like the economist Adam Smith, or clonging technology - technology that is shared internationally. This collaboration has meant that the Scotland of the world looks around at peers and welcomes those in. This is partly because of a shared emmigrant history - families all over North America identify as "Scottish", in the same way we identify as a global culure.
Scotland Wants to be in the EU
This is obvious, isn't it. 62% voted to remain. But in the IndyRef1 we voted No to Remain too. It was repeated time and time again that the UK was the sure-fire way to stay in the EU, and despite what lies Thersea May repeats, an Independent Scotland will very likely be in the EU. The scare story that we'd not be welcomed is just simply not the case, and very few EU politicians would say otherwise when Scotland is already in the EU. It's democractically barmy to think that EU citizenship would be refused to a nation self-determining that the EU is part of it's identify and part of the identity of an Independent Scotland. If the UK can leave, then Scotland can stay. So too, can Northern Ireland.
Scotland Will Still Trade With the UK
One of the largest attack lines with the current swell of momentum is that the UK is the largest trading partner an Independent Scotland would have. That's right, there is no disputeing that. But if we walk through the scenario, there's nothing to worry about - if rUK leaves the EU and Scotland stays, it's gets the benefits of a EU-weighted deal, one that the EU will only negotiate if it is in their best interests. Is it better to be inside the UK but out of the single market? Who really knows, but by inspection, being inside the largest market for the rUK to trade with, and also trading freely there, is a far more competetive place to be that stuck with a partner who doesn't believe you're an equal.
Scotland Isn't Being Listened To
Some Indy supporters already think this - I certianly do. A Tory PM ruling a country with one MP is something that I find hard to stomach. Another thing I find hard to stomach is the brushing off of a nation of people more poilitically engaged than any point in modern history with simple "you've had your chance" and "shut up and put up with it". If anyone was convinced by the post-IndyRef1 comments from Westminster of "partner of equals" they've been put right in the past few months - Scotland may have a voice, but it's drowned out by the rUK's louder and more powerful one. Why stay together when one party hates the way the other treats them, and then when they promise to do better they actually do a million times worse? It just logically doesn't follow.
Finally, Scotland Needs to Do Something Different
Scotland is a place of different things and ideals. A country that has suffered and thrived a few times in the past decades has found it's own calling in recent years, bouyed by a generation, like me, who actually care about other people. There areafew who don't, but by in large the nation is a left-leaning group of educated folk, and those who aren't degree level educated are far more cosmopolitan about their future and the people they live with. Scotland is so drastically different to England, it's hard to emphasise it enough. And now, as the two nations drift further apart, Scotland needs to - nay, deserves to - take it's own step forward and into a global community rather than retreat for it.
An independent Scotland is coming. It is now a matter of When, not If.